Morgan’s moment

A look at the women poised to lead the Welsh Senned

'There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.'

V.I. Lenin

‘A week is a long time in politics.’

H. Wilson

‘Everything must change for everything to remain the same’

Tancredi, in “The Leopard” by G.T. di Lampedusa.

‘The finest brute votes in Europe’ was the appellation attached by Wellington to the British Tory Party. That cohesion, discipline and ruthless adaptability to alterations in terrain has disappeared in recent decades; but it could equally be said of Welsh Labour.

Nobody has ever become rich by betting against the political party with the longest record of unbroken hegemony in democratic Europe (the CSU has only held power in Bavaria in their current incarnation since 1948 whereas Welsh Labour have won every first order election in Wales since 1935). Last week Welsh Labour looked to have turned into a circular firing squad. Now it has executed a dramatic about-face, formed into a square and fixed bayonets with an alacrity the Iron Duke himself could envy.

The high drama lasted from Monday evening to Sunday morning. A week ago, the Cabinet Secretary for Education, Jeremy Miles, in an interview with ITV News, repeatedly refused to confirm that he had confidence in his notional boss the Prif Weinidog/First Minister Vaughan Gething. The following morning he and three others resigned from their cabinet positions and later that same morning Gething himself bowed to the inevitable and confirmed that, with the loss of confidence from his colleagues, he was resigning with immediate effect as Party Leader and then in due course as PW/FM.

I covered the causes of Gething’s demise and the potential successors in previous posts. In those, I labelled Miles as the most likely victor, followed by Health Secretary Eluned Morgan. I neglected however the force of Heseltine’s dictum that ‘he who wields the knife never wears the crown’. On Sunday morning Miles pulled out of the running to endorse Morgan; swiftly followed by pretty much every other Labour MS.

The reason for Miles’ reverse ferret isn’t yet clear. According to a source close to him:

“Jeremy’s team concluded that an election was likely winnable. His base in the party - which gained near half of the votes of all members and trade union voters just four months ago - remains solid. However, the greater interests of the government and the party outweighed the individual considerations.”

I have also been told however that as he telephoned around those colleagues who had nominated him previously on Saturday evening it became clear his support was haemorrhaging and that he would struggle to gain the most MS nominations. This was possibly reinforced by the WEC (Wales’ equivalent of Labour’s NEC) Procedure Committee’s decision to truncate the election timetable leading to a rapid consolidation of the field of challengers around Morgan. As someone loosely involved in Eluned’s shambolic 2018 leadership campaign I suspect both versions may well be accurate. Jeremy could well have won; but the effort would have been wounding to both himself and the Party.

It now seems certain that Morgan will be nominated unanimously by her colleagues in the Senedd PLP by close of play on Monday, and that consequently, Gething will request a recall of the Senedd later this week immediately prior to returning his seals of office to the King. Whether the Nationalist, Lib Dem & Tory alliance of convenience will oppose her election remains to be seen, but my guess is that it won’t go beyond a second round of voting.

If a new PW/FM is not elected within 28 days there must be a Senedd general election at which Reform would do rather well at the expense of existing Regional List MS (overwhelmingly Tories and Nationalists). Even the current crop of Conservatives surely have more common sense than to invite this fate on themselves.

Once she is duly elected Lady Morgan will become the first Peer to head a devolved administration since Lord Brookeborough; the first woman PW/FM of Wales ever; and the second Morgan (they are not related; though Rhodri’s widow, Julie Morgan, is MS for Cardiff North). Besides highlighting the great Welsh surname shortage, the common feature with Rhodri is that both Morgans assume office as the unanimous choice of their fellow Labour MS (strictly AMs in Rhodri’s case) and the consequent freedom to lead their troops without needing to watch their backs.

So what do we expect of the new broom? My take is that Eluned hails from the ‘soft-left’ tradition of Neil Kinnock and the late Robin Cook. She too is a repentant unilateralist; supporter of redistribution; staunchly pro-European and a ‘subsidiarist’ in relation to devolution (Neil’s views on devolution shifted significantly in the 1980s broadly in parallel with those on Europe). Unlike Neil, but in common with Glenys, she speaks fluent Welsh.

Eluned has no obvious affection for ‘first past the post’ even in the hybridised ‘additional member’ form and so I expect that the next election will, as planned, be held under the new Party List PR system. If, however, Plaid Cymru play fast and loose over the autumn budget I wouldn’t put it past her to follow Carl Sergeant’s example in dismissing the boundaries commissioners and thereby scuppering the legislation from coming into effect. Either way, the introduction of a significant Reform contingent of MS will - at least partly -  outweigh the negative consequences for Welsh Labour (so long as it remains the largest party) by making a rainbow coalition impossible.

Insofar as her cabinet goes, it seems an opportune point to wave farewell to veteran MS who will be standing down in 2026. Jane Hutt has been in ministerial harness for 24 years. Her Deputy First Minister title has already been pledged to Huw Irranca-Davies; so it seems sensible that he also takes over the Senedd Business and Chief Whip roles. Jeremy Miles will probably replace her in the Health hot seat which accounts for 50 per cent of the Welsh Governments’ total budget. Vaughan Gething could be offered the Counsel General role to make use of his genuine talents as an advocate while he mulls his political future. Lee Waters has just written a fascinating blogpost justifying his conduct over Gething and could return as Climate and Rural Affairs Minister. I do not expect Hannah Blythin to be recalled.

As Lee’s first boss observed: ‘devolution is a process; not an event’. Vaughan Gething joins Ron Davies & Alun Michael in the line of those who demonstrate that devolution is about far more than the fate of one man. Eluned Morgan’s moment has arrived in tandem with a Westminster government sympathetic to her social democratic values. It now falls to her to write the next chapter in the story and continue to advance the Fabian progress of her Party’s democratic socialist principles. Pob lwc cymrawd.

Dave Collins Is a member of Cardiff South & Penarth CLP and a former Party Organiser. This is the first of two posts – the next will outline what the options and who the candidates are in the upcoming contest.

This is a special free version of my weekly email. I rely, in part, on the income I get from my writing, so I would be delighted if you sign up to get the whole shebang!

The price of this newsletter is now £5 per month or £50 for an annual subscription. You can subscribe by clicking below. Paid subscribers get double the content - access to everything I write on a weekly, rather than fortnightly, basis.

Your support for independent media is greatly appreciated. This project takes work and care, and I cherish your support and recognition.

However, if this option is not possible for you and you want to thank me for this post ) you can also make a one-off donation here.