Where next for Welsh Labour? Prospective contenders & the process

A second guest post on the goings on in Welsh Labour and the Senedd

[Note from Emma: When I started this newsletter I set myself certain rules. The key one was to try not to opine on things I wouldn’t know more about than my readers. So, for example, I might talk about the politics behind planning policy, but I wouldn’t pretend to be that policy expert. In response to my recent post about how I would write about Labour is was pointed out that I hadn’t mentioned Wales. There was a reason for that. While I know quite a bit about Scottish Labour politics I know a lot less about Wales. I couldn’t ignore what happened this week but nor could I effectively write about it. So I asked the brilliant David Collins to do it for me.]

My first post looked at the reasons outgoing Leader Vaughan Gething lost the support of enough of his Senedd PLP Group to make his position tenable. This post will consider the likely and possible contenders to take his place.

First, however we should get a handle on process and timetable.

The Welsh Executive Committee (WEC) will convene today to determine those aspects of the contest which they enjoy the flexibility to decide; but the rules themselves lay down three routes for a candidate – who must be a sitting MS - to be validly nominated:

• By nomination from 20 per cent of the Senedd PLP. With 30 MS this means gaining the support of five colleagues.

• By nomination from 10 per cent of the Senedd PLP plus 20 percent of CLPs. With 32 CLPs this implies seven CLP nominations plus those of two colleagues.

• By nomination from 10 per cent of the Senedd PLP plus three affiliates; two of which must be registered Trade Unions.

In reality the later two paths are more theoretical than practical since a candidate who cannot secure the backing of five fellow MS is unlikely to be viable and would face still graver legitimacy problems than Gething did in the unlikely event they were to prevail. The existence of the CLP route, however, has the effect of prolonging the timetable. Since no CLPs meet in August the nominations process itself cannot realistically conclude until the end of September at the earliest.

The election itself will be via ‘one member one vote’ with affiliate members’ votes counted equally to CLP members. In theory, at least, nobody will have more than one vote no matter how many different affiliates they are a member of.

Once candidates are validly nominated they’ll be given a filleted version of the Party’s membership database. Access to affiliate member data is, however, at the discretion of each affiliate; potentially giving them the chance to influence their members towards their national political committees’ favoured candidate.

Precedent from past elections suggests a period of eight weeks for campaigning; usually involving official hustings in each of the five Senedd electoral regions; supportive nominations from Party units and affiliates; electronic and postal mailings from candidates to members; and the despatch and return of postal ballots to members and affiliate members for whom the Party does not have a valid email address. This would take us to the end of November. The WEC has scope to opt for a shorter or longer ‘campaigning’ phase. The absolute minimum is probably four weeks

Depending how efficiently MS use their nominations there could be at least half a dozen candidates. In descending order of probability, we might see a race including:

Jeremy Miles (52, Neath)

The clear favourite given that in March this year, he won 49 per cent of the membership and 47 per cent of the affiliate vote in a head-to-head contest with Gething. Miles read law at New College, Oxford and specialised in digital, media and commercial law before entering the Senedd in 2016 (following a single vote defeat by Stephen Kinnock in the contest to be selected as MP candidate for Aberavon). He is a Welsh speaker, openly gay, and was a member of Progress. Miles is virtually certain to be nominated and may well scoop enough support to make more than a couple of the other prospective challengers unviable.

His weak point (such as it is) is that he is perceived to have wielded the knife that cut down Gething and consequently could face difficulties re-uniting the Senedd PLP.

(Baroness) Eluned Morgan (57, Mid & West Wales Region)

Current Health, Social Care & Welsh Language Minister Eluned read European Studies at Hull and spent 15 years as an MEP prior to election as a Regional Member to the Senedd in 2016. She was a founder member of the Yes for Wales campaign in 1997 and of the internal pro-Welsh language Labour grouping Cymdeithas Cledwyn (named in honour of the late Cledwyn Hughes MP). 

As an MEP Morgan abstained in the key vote on Iraq (a more courageous position that it sounds in retrospect). She has multiple speeding convictions and was banned from driving for six months in 2022. She ran In the 2018 election to succeed Carwyn Jones coming third behind Drakeford and Gething after a lengthy struggle to meet the nomination threshold. As the only woman in the frame this time she will probably reach the threshold on that basis. Her main weakness this time is likely to be the unsatisfactory state of the NHS on her watch as waiting lists rose drastically in consequence of covid and have not fallen significantly since.

Ken Skates (48, Clwyd South)

Minister for Economy, Transport and North Wales, Ken studied at Sidney Sussex, Cambridge; served as a councillor and worked as a local journalist and for Mark Tami and Carl Sargent before his election to the then National Assembly in 2011. As a borders MS for a heavily anglicised constituency neighbouring Cheshire Ken is more likely to stress interdependence than independence when the ‘National Question’ is raised and is not a Welsh speaker.

After the 2021 elections, he stood down from Drakeford’s cabinet for ‘personal reasons’ following what appears to have been disagreement over the direction of transport policy, specifically the cancellation of plans to build an M4 Relief Road around Newport. He was reappointed to the identical portfolio by Gething in March and has been attempting to soften the reduction in default urban speed limits from 30 to 20 mph in response to the unpopularity of the measure with many drivers. Ken will be the preferred candidate of most Gething allies and is likely to gain significant affiliate backing.

Huw Irranca-Davies (61, Ogmore)

From a political family (his uncle was MP for Gower in the Wilson era) Huw presently holds the Climate Change and Rural Affairs portfolio. His higher education journey took in Crewe college and Swansea Metropolitan University. Elected to the UK parliament at a by-election in 2002 Huw backed the Iraq war in 2003 and went onto serve as PUSS in the Wales Office and DEFRA under Gordon Brown.

Irranca-Davies stood down from the UK Parliament in 2016 in order to run in the 2016 Senedd elections. One of his last acts as an MP was to nominate Jeremy Corbyn to the ballot for the 2015 UK Labour Leadership election. It is unclear whether Huw can achieve sufficient nominations to run without affiliate or CLP backing. He appears to be positioning as the unification option between the Miles and Gething partisans.

Mike Hedges (68, Swansea East)

A graduate of both Swansea and Cardiff Universities Mike worked for British Steel and as an FE lecturer. He was a Swansea councillor from 1989 until 2012 and led the authority between 1999 and 2001 after which he developed a penchant for formally challenging his successors at AGMs in order to trigger a ballot. Elected to the Senedd in 2011 he was one of the few MS to back Corbyn’s leadership and trailed himself as a potential candidate in 2018 contest before backing Drakeford.

Although a Miles supporter earlier this year Mike may have been alienated by disparaging remarks about him by Miles in the WhatsApp leak that led to the sacking of Hannah Blythin. He is openly opposed to the move to Party List PR and if he wishes to run could well be nominated via the CLPs route drawing upon the residual capacity of the Welsh Labour Grassroots Alliance (who hold People’s Momentum’s Welsh franchise). Although highly unlikely to win Mike would certainly broaden the debate and raise issues that more viable candidates would rather finesse.

Lee Waters (48, Llanelli)

Son of a coal miner made redundant in the 1980s Lee studied at Aberystwyth (coterminous with Gething) before becoming ‘boy wonder’ SPAD to Ron Davies. After Ron’s political implosion, he worked as a political journalist for ITV and then headed the pro-cycling organisation Sustrans in Wales. Elected to the Senedd in 2016 Waters controversially championed the scrapping of all new road capital programmes and the reduction in the default urban speed limit to 20mph. Bruised by the negative reaction by drivers to these policies Waters made clear his intent to resign from government alongside Drakeford.

In July he failed to back Gething in the vote of ‘no confidence’ (in practice a censure motion with no legal consequence) with his claim of illness widely disbelieved. Although a Miles backer in March Lee might well be looking to lay down a marker for the future and secure his return to ministerial office through a tilt at the Leadership this time around if he can collect sufficient surplus Miles nominations.

Dave Collins Is a member of Cardiff South & Penarth CLP and a former Party Organiser. This is the first of two posts – the next will outline what the options and who the candidates are in the upcoming contest.

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