This speculation about the distribution/number of seats in the next Parliament is a distraction.
What is actually happening now in Britain is societal collapse. So many bad decisions, irreversible bad decisions, have been made that political fiddling is completely irrelevant.
Simply put; there isn't a single agency of the British State that is fit for purpose. Not the Monarchy, Parliament, National and Local civil service/govt. Not the military, the "justice" system, industrial, environmental, education, health, immigration policy, none of it works.
This is a society that has forgotten how to do things. Led by a tired, corrupt, decadent, elite who have long since lost any sense of consciousness or direction.
Does anybody seriously think that a Starmer govt. will be any more competent than the Sunak govt.?
The only sensible reaction is to get out if you can. As 500,000 or so did in 2023.
It's also worth considering to what extent Labour were booted out of office last time not because of pursuing specifically Labour hobby-horses, but because they went too far in doing the kind of thing the Tories would have done in their shoes (Iraq, tuition fees, lax regulation of banks, indulgence of financial/subcontracting shenanigans around the NHS/trains/water etc). We can mostly blame the Americans for the global financial crisis, but Labour had already lost a lot of support by 2005 (35% vote for the government versus 32% for a party led by Michael Howard is hardly an overwhelming mandate). The policy questions will be different for Starmer, but similar dynamics could play out if his government adopts various bad ideas coming out of the right-wing press, think-tanks, "business community" or swing voter focus groups, meaning limited opposition in the short term (the parliamentary left will still be quite weak and divided, and the Lib Dems will have many picked up many voters who agree with these bad ideas) but disaster in the medium term as the implementation of those ideas leads to bad outcomes.
Also interesting on the Tory wipeout scenario, from Sam Freedman: https://samf.substack.com/p/wipout-the-odds-narrow
This speculation about the distribution/number of seats in the next Parliament is a distraction.
What is actually happening now in Britain is societal collapse. So many bad decisions, irreversible bad decisions, have been made that political fiddling is completely irrelevant.
Simply put; there isn't a single agency of the British State that is fit for purpose. Not the Monarchy, Parliament, National and Local civil service/govt. Not the military, the "justice" system, industrial, environmental, education, health, immigration policy, none of it works.
This is a society that has forgotten how to do things. Led by a tired, corrupt, decadent, elite who have long since lost any sense of consciousness or direction.
Does anybody seriously think that a Starmer govt. will be any more competent than the Sunak govt.?
The only sensible reaction is to get out if you can. As 500,000 or so did in 2023.
It's also worth considering to what extent Labour were booted out of office last time not because of pursuing specifically Labour hobby-horses, but because they went too far in doing the kind of thing the Tories would have done in their shoes (Iraq, tuition fees, lax regulation of banks, indulgence of financial/subcontracting shenanigans around the NHS/trains/water etc). We can mostly blame the Americans for the global financial crisis, but Labour had already lost a lot of support by 2005 (35% vote for the government versus 32% for a party led by Michael Howard is hardly an overwhelming mandate). The policy questions will be different for Starmer, but similar dynamics could play out if his government adopts various bad ideas coming out of the right-wing press, think-tanks, "business community" or swing voter focus groups, meaning limited opposition in the short term (the parliamentary left will still be quite weak and divided, and the Lib Dems will have many picked up many voters who agree with these bad ideas) but disaster in the medium term as the implementation of those ideas leads to bad outcomes.