Reassurance and change: Why Hope can't feel like a second term priority

I'm not sure there is much now Labour can do to lose the next election. But they have to offer hope in order to be able to govern well.

Labour people are pretty allergic to telling you they are probably going to win the next election. But, let’s face it, they are. It would take something really quite extraordinary for that not to happen. The Tories have all but given up. Even when - as is traditional - the polls narrow - they are unlikely to do so even to hung parliament territory at this point and incredibly unlikely to get to a point where the Tories have any chance of hanging on in there.

For many people, the chance to get rid of this disastrous shower of a government may be cause enough for hope. But the narrative I am hearing a lot from the commentariat is that there is a sense of ‘a plague on both your houses (though less on yours)’ coming across from voters. They’re sick to the back teeth of the Tories but aren’t in love with Labour - just willing to take a marriage of convenience for now.

Now in part, this might just be the latest bout of narrative to infect the Westminster journalism bubble. You have to have something to write in political columns and it’s a long way from now to the election. Of course, they want to write something - anything - more exciting than “things are exactly as you think they are”.

However, there is almost certainly a grain of truth in what they are extrapolating from focus groups. So let’s unpack that and think why it matters in a world where Labour has a 20-point lead.