On defections

Natalie Elphicke is a surprising new member of the Labour benches. Why is she there and what does it mean for Labour and it's internal discipline (formal and informal)?

Yesterday, just moments before PMQs it was announced that MP for Dover, Natalie Elphicke, had crossed the floor to join the Labour benches. She was then prominently positioned behind Starmer (and thus in camera shot) throughout the session.

Elphicke’s defection is in some ways a coup for Labour. In other ways, it’s a curse. I don’t normally do midweek newsletters but as I am halfway through my promised piece on the Greens which I do want to send out with the local elections fresh in the mind, I thought I would send a quick additional piece setting out what the advantages and challenges for Labour are.

The biggest question is why has Elphicke done this? She’s always been very right wing and critical of Labour on a range of issues - in particular their approach to immigration. However, this interesting timeline from Henry Zeffman at the BBC shows a bit more nuance in her positions - at least in part agreeing with Labour’s post 2020 approach to Post-Brexit relations with Europe and being a staunch advocate for quite left wing approaches to the Housing crisis.

So a generous interpretation would be that she sees enough common ground with Labour to work with them on the issues on which they agree. A less generous one would be that she has always been a bit of an attention seeker and this has been given to her in sackloads over the last 24 hours.

Will she be disciplined enough to stick to Labour lines on issues around which there are significant ideological differences though? That question still remains very much in the balance.

Inside the Labour Party, discipline is very much the word of the day. Many MPs - including Shadow Cabinet members (though anonymously) have raised questions about Elphicke past behaviours and how they would fare under Labour’s (admittedly shabby and secretive) discipline processes.

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She was previously, for example, suspended from the House of Commons for trying to influence the judge in the case where her - now - ex-husband was convicted on three counts of sexual assault. I can’t see that going down well in the Women’s PLP.

There is a handful of MPs who have been Labour MPs for many years still have the whip suspended from them for indefinite periods with little or no understanding of how, whether or even if the investigations are progressing and little or no insight into the process that is judging them. There is understandable frustration from inside parliament and outside of it too that someone whose previous behaviour would almost certainly led to having the whip suspended had she been a Labour MP at the time of her transgressions has instead joined the party and been publicly lauded for doing so.

So why have Starmer’s team done this?

Well, the answer is obvious.

As FT Political Columnist Stephen Bush has frequently observed voters pay very little attention to politics in general. And the best way of getting cut through is not long reads in the Guardian, but making the headlines on the hourly news bulletins on commercial radio. And here they had the perfect message for cut through. Tory MP defects to Labour. MP is on the frontline of the small boats crisis and says Sunak cannot deliver. Perfect.

Starmer and his team are completely focused on winning the election - as they should be. Labour is not generally very good at winning elections and even with a reported 30 point lead, are right to take nothing for granted. But the tunnel vision required for this can also lead to some blindness to how their actions may be storing up trouble for the months and years ahead.

There have been significant rumbles from the left of the party that Starmer’s team are even more ruthless in their sidelining of the left than happened under Blair. (I think there is a bit more to unpack when it comes to this, but that’s for (yet) another newsletter).

But the disquiet over Elphicke’s admittance to Labour goes far beyond the usual suspects. I admit it makes me feel pretty queasy even as I understand the potential media and political rewards. I will be interested to see what comes of this LabourList poll about the defection.

Labour are in an incredibly strong position at the moment. And at the same time as all the discipline coming from LOTO is about ‘no complacency’ they are also open about the idea that Starmer’s missions are a ten-year project.

Parties that want to get re-elected need to keep a balance between keeping those who chose to vote for them against habit (or int he habit of floating) onside and keeping their activists active. This will mean Starmer adopting a more delicate dance with the party when Labour are in government and find that not everything goes their way.

At the moment, Labour is having a great time politically. The government is like the walking dead and there just doesn’t seem to be anything they can do about it. Meanwhile, Labour looks professional and ready - a government in impatient waiting.

But just as I have often criticised Rishi Sunak for being all tactics and no strategy, so too do I think this is an occasional (less so than Sunak, but present nonetheless) flaw in the Starmer operation. Things that look great on the day can have a habit of rebounding on parties when they aren’t fully thought through. This move has the potential to have significant and damaging ripples on Labour.

These ripples will include the sense from some that he doesn’t stand for anything but winning (I disagree, but this doesn’t help); that the party’s disciplinary processes are broken beyond repair, are being exerted in factional ways and must fundamentally change (I agree and will be writing more) and the sense that there is a real disconnect between Starmer and his MPs (I wouldn’t know, but I hear this from people well beyond the hard left).

All of these exist as potential future problems for Labour. As Starmer and his team approach the finishing post of a general election, they must now pivot to thinking beyond it and fixing any traps they may be laying for themselves before they become bear pits.

People must be allowed to change their minds and politics. That is the art of the practice. So it may well be that Elphicke adopts the values, policies and politics of her new party with aplomb, serves out her time (she is stepping down at the election) in service of that new party and her conversion is real and deep. Time will tell. But in the meantime, Starmer does need to be more adept at party management strategies that go beyond an iron grip.

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