Disgrace never dies
Johnson isn't finished being a thorn in Sunak's side.
A party leader in disgrace who will not run again in his own constituency. Does feel like I have written this post before. This one is different - of course. They all are. So here I try to think through what the options are for Boris Johnson - and what those mean for Rishi Sunak and the Tories.
Boris Johnson is almost entirely ego driven. He believes - absolutely - in Boris Johnson. There doesn’t seem to be any purpose to that particularly. There’s nothing that Johnson particularly wants to actually do with power other than have it.
This ego leads to two parallel paths. Firstly, an absolutely unswerving, unemotional and unending pursuit of his own interests. Every decision is bent to this. Anyone - friend or foe - who is even simply perceived to get in the way, or even simply be extraneous to the pursuit of Boris’s progression is trampled on. Those who cheerlead for him nearly always get burned by it. And yet still they persist.
The other path is that of the wounded ego. Nothing moves Johnson as much as revenge on those he feels have wronged him. That this now includes large parts of the Conservative Parliamentary Party - up to and including the Prime Minister - should worry them all. Vengeance is a dish that - hot or cold - Boris lives on.
So what will he do now? Boris is unpredictable. And he is at his most dangerous when cornered. His belief in his own right to power is undiminished by the obvious way in which he was actually, provably complete unsuited to it.
So while it might be possible that he choses to go off and continue to earn a lot more money, it is perfectly possible that he won’t see doing that as a hindrance to his further pursuit of power. So those are the options I am going to explore: How will Boris attempt to reclaim his Crown?
The Mid Bedfordshire path
Yesterday morning, Nadine Dorries was not going to step down and cause a by-election By the end of the day she had retired with immediate effect. In her words “something significant” happened to change her mind.
Also yesterday, Boris Johnson was given the full report of the Parliamentary Privileges Committee which he later revealed had recommended that he be suspended for over 10 days - a move that would trigger a by-election in his marginal seat of Uxbridge.
And about an hour after Dorries resigned as an MP, so too did Boris.
The first and most obvious assumption is a straight swap. He has convinced Dorries - who has always been obviously and catastrophically willing to throw her own interests under the Boris bus - to step down so he can run for her seat.
Whether that would be allowed or not feels complicated. There has been much talk recently of the decisions of Labour’s National Executive Committee in overruling candidates they feel would be detrimental to the national interests of the party or were unfit to be candidates - the most high profile, of course, being former Leader Jeremy Corbyn who will not be allowed to contest the Islington North seat he has held since 1983.
I don’t know what the internal processes of the Conservative Party are and whether they have an equivalent body who could step in to stop Johnson from being the candidate if they chose to do so, but you have to assume there is. Even were he able to put himself forward as a candidate, it is possible that the members of Mid Bedfordshire would choose not to select him. The Parliamentary committee will meet on Monday to set out their next steps and whatever else happens, the anger of Parliamentarians at being denied their role in his justice will be significant. This will not go away quietly.
While both Labour and the Liberal Democrats have indicated that they would be fielding candidates in Mid Bedfordshire, if Johnson is adopted as the formal Conservative candidate that could change. We could see a 1997 Tatton-style pact with a non-aligned anti-corruption candidate (Carol Vorderman springs to mind) being supported by all parties in an effort to stop Boris returning to Parliament.
So Sunak might be faced with a battle royale between a Tory candidate he loathes and a candidate whose entire message will be the exposure of Tory corruption. Given that, blocking Johnson and taking the hit on a potential by-election loss might be the best of the bad options.
Another, later, safe Tory seat
Johnson might decide that he would rather the dust settles before running again as a Tory MP. Indeed, he might spend the next year out of Parliament, causing trouble but also focusing most of his energy on making as much money as possible before looking for a safe berth much closer to the election.
This might be the safest and least damaging option for him, for Sunak and for the Conservatives. But it would be considerably more risky for Johnson. He might not find a seat, he might find that as the Privileges Committee report sinks in, there is just no way back for him in a Tory seat.
Hey Richard Tice - how you doing?
Of course for Sunak - and the future of the Tory Party - Boris becoming a Tory MP again may not be the worst option.
Because, just as Corbyn may run to be the member for Islington North outside of the Labour Party, so too could Johnson decide that his future definitely lies in party leadership - just not the Conservative Party.
He could run as an independent. A Boris party of one. But that doesn’t feel like his style. He’s absolutely not capable of loyalty, but that doesn’t mean that he doesn’t need - even crave - it from others. He needs a party to provide him with acolytes.
HE could - of course - set up his own party. But again, that doesn’t feel like his style. Boris is parasitic. He takes others that are weak or have been weakened and convinces them to feel beholden to him. He did that with London Tories in the 2000s, with Brexit campaigners and with the Post May Tory party. Successfully at each turn, though the long term has not been quite as fruitful on each occasion.
But for Reform UK - Boris could be a game changer they can ill-afford to deny themselves. They have struggled to gain a hearing since Farage stepped down. Tice is not a charismatic leader and they are a party that needs that kind of figurehead to break through.
Boris has just appointed a bunch of cronies to the House of Lords. They joined those he had already put there - like Peter Cruddas. And despite the loss of Dorries, there are still a fair few Tory MPs with at least as much loyalty to Boris as to their Party. Imagine if her were able to bring some of those with him to this smaller party and they suddenly find themselves with a leader who is one of the best known politicians in the country and a foothold in Parliament.
Reform have already said that they intend to run candidates against the Tories this time around. While they are in the doldrums that is annoying for a Tory party drastically struggling in the polls but not the existential crisis that it could be were they to get a Boris-shaped shot in the arm.
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Nothing would give Johnson and his ego greater satisfaction to - in his mind - take a level of political vengeance on Sunak that would be Shakespearian in its scale while at the same time puffing up his ego and proving - to himself at least - that his political magic is not lost.
Boris is a scorpion whose sting is heading towards its willing victim in the Tory Party. It may be that their willingness to accept the bargain of him winning the 2019 election for them will have the same outcome for so many others who have bet their future on Boris Johnson and found they don’t have one.
As some of you may remember - a few wonderful people (and me) - wrote and spent the bank holiday writing a play in 48 hours. And it turns out... it's so good we're putting it on again!
48 will be showing on the 3rd and 4th July at the Lion and Unicorn in Kentish Town and you can buy tickets here: https://app.lineupnow.com/event/forty-eight
We've got pirates and time travel and cabbages and a Weft engine and weird blokes and the whole of human consciousness. We've also got a seriously fun night out that will make you laugh and possibly even cry too.
I'd love for you to come and see it.
I run a political and communications consultancy called Political Human. Please get in touch if you are looking for political or media consultancy advice, strategic communication and campaign planning, ghostwriting, copywriting, editing, training or coaching.
You can read some lovely things that some of my clients have said here.
What I’ve been up to
It’s been a really busy week for me professionally but I do have two podcasts for you all.
Firstly an episode of House of Comments where we discuss Keir Starmer and Brexit and - who else - Boris Johnson.
Secondly, I hosted a new podcast, Fabian Thinking, from The Fabian Society to discuss their latest research - A roadmap to a National Care Service.