Bad Week, Good Year
Whatever happens in Rochdale this will be a difficult week for Labour. But the sky is not falling
(Sorry the newsletter is a day late. It was my birthday at the weekend and I had a great time celebrating. Though I suggest if you ever want to have a productive Sunday, do not drink two drinks called a “Nuclear Daiquiri” on Saturday night!)
Last week was unedifying in Parliament. This week will bring about an unedifying byelection result no matter who wins. Labour’s tendency to think the sky is falling is about to be severely tested. This is a test the party has to pass.
Labour are a constitutionally nervous party. I tend to date this back to 1992, but that might just be when I first noticed it because it was the last General Election in which I was too young to vote. Perhaps Labour has never been confident. Perhaps confidence is asking too much of a party that does have a habit of losing winnable elections.
So, yes, whatever happens at the by-election this Thursday, no one in Labour will be particularly happy.
If the candidate selected by Labour wins they will instantly lose the whip having been suspended from the party. They will not be the candidate at the general election.
If Reform wins, it’s embarrassing for the Tories and will cause even more of the awful behaviour we have seen from Lee Anderson and others this week. Including all the WhatsApp supporters he’s had despite his grim comments. Also, if Reform wins the MP will be Simon Danczuk who was thrown out of the Labour Party in disgrace after exchanging explicit texts with a teenager.
Possibly the worst - and most likely - outcome is George Galloway winning his fourth seat for a fourth different constituency. The carpetbagger’s carpetbagger is the bookie’s favourite. Again, like most of his other post-Labour victories this would be unlikely to last, but at this moment in UK politics - as MPs increasingly fear for their safety - having this man thrown into the tinderbox of Parliament will not be a situation that will please anyone.
Labour will have a bad week and probably, as a result, a bad weekend. And you know what - it won’t be the last. The party isn’t perfect and will have troubles that an increasing electoral spotlight will throw up. The thing is, I don’t think it will change the fundamentals.
Look at this passage from Tim Shipman:
Labour are in full on no complacency mode. Fine. I get that. But they need to be really cautious that this doesn’t spill over into it’s easy corollary of panic mode. Becuase if Labour keep telling themselves they aren’t on course to win, then every set back feels more existential than it actually is.
The point of ‘no complacency’ is for Labout to ‘keep the heid’. That has to work both ways.
So, in the immortally reassuring words of The HitchHiker’s Guide to the Galaxy:
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What I’ve been up to
What does a woman do when she’s facing 50 down the barrel of a gun? Why make an album of course! You can listen to it here:
As always, Charlotte and I recorded two episodes of House of Comments. The first talked about the mess in Rochdale and the second the extraordinary scenes in the commons last week.
Happy Birthday Emma!